3,997.
That's at least one organization's guess at how many unique Android devices are in use today. If true, that is a staggering number of individual devices. And without a doubt that would corroborate the notion that Android is "fragmented." Broken into millions of small pieces like shards of glass.
Or something like that.
The survey was released this week from the makers of OpenSignalMaps and it encompasses six-months of download data from their popular Google Play Store app. Overall there were 681,900 entries into the survey. In all fairness, the makers of the survey do not seem to take a stance on this being negative or positive, but there are some indications they believe it is the former.
Without question the predominant narrative the press derived from this survey was that Android is a very fragmented ecosystem, and that fragmentation hurts consumers and app developers. Furthermore, that fragmentation is just another reason to purchase an iPhone.
Is Android fragmented? Of course, that is not only a consequence of providing a free mobile operating system, it is the desired effect of providing a free mobile operating system. Is this a negative outcome? Yes and no.
For starters, let's stop pretending the survey from OpenSignalMaps is scientific. It is not. It was not a random sample, it was a convenience sample of people who downloaded an app. Furthermore the nearly 4,000 device number I quoted earlier was incredibly muddled with custom ROMs and devices that are light years outside of the mainstream.
The data also suggested more of a long-tail of fragmentation than a widespread use of a large number of devices. The survey found Samsung commanded 40% of the Android market, combined with Motorola, HTC, and Sony it was more than 60%. In other words, there are three or four big manufactures that dominate the market, and then a large number of insignificant manufactures.
Now that we know the caveats of the study, it is clear that this is not a great representation of the Android community. It certainly suggests there are several manufactures and several configurations, however that was verified before this was released.
OpenSignalMaps also provides data regarding the version of Android these devices were running, and again there are few surprises.
The brunt of the devices (55%) were running Gingerbread (2.3), 20.5% were running Froyo (2.2), and only four-tenths of a percent were running the latest Android Ice Cream Sandwich. Other, more reliable data, suggests that the Android 4.0 user base is more like 2-3% of the community, which makes more sense. Either way, this data actually does show what I believe is an important negative fragmentation of the market.
To be frank, I do not believe the hardware fragmentation is either significant, meaningful, or negative. In fact, I believe it is the opposite, it is positive. Choice is essential in a consumer market, more choice means better products. And while it took some time for Android hardware to match the iPhone, I think in many ways it has exceeded it. Apple is no longer leading the market with new and revolutionary features, Android is taking the lead.
Take screen size for example. Steve Jobs outspokenly lamented large screens on phones. However, because of pressure from Android handset makers, and the demand from consumers who are envious or growing accustomed to those larger screens, Apple is reportedly putting a 4-inch screen on the next iPhone.
Big screens won't sell? Clearly false. Galaxy Note anyone?
The next iPhone will reportedly feature 4G LTE, two years after Verizon launched their 4G LTE network, and a year and a half after many Android phones began shipping with LTE on board. That "Android fragmentation" among hardware is the reason Apple is now behind the smartphone arms race.
However, the software fragmentation is an entirely different story. That is a problem. Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich (ICS) was released publicly in mid-October, it has been six months, and 97% of users are still running an older version of the software.
Some handset makers, cough cough Motorola, have yet to release ICS for a single phone. In six months! HTC and Samsung are finally getting around to releasing it on a large scale, but by now the majority of recent phones should be running the latest desert.
I understand not all phones will receive an update, nor should they. Software cannot be held back because of the minority running legacy devices (just ask Microsoft). Apple does the same with iOS. When iOS 5 was released, anyone still using the first three iPhones remained on the older software. However, phones that are a year old or newer should get an update, and they should get an update quickly.
However, that is a problem that Google both recognizes and is attempting to fix. Hence why a recent report suggests they will start selling several Nexus devices direct to customers, essentially killing two birds with one stone. The first bird is slow updates, Nexus devices are vanilla and get software updates direct from Google. The second bird is carrier subsidies and long-term contracts. If people buy the phones directly from Google, the carriers cannot force you into a long term contract. It's a win-win for Google.
So is Android fragmented. Of course. But choice is probably a more apt term. Unlike iOS, users have choices from hardware, to software, right down to the keyboard they use on the phone. People like choice.
And apparently on Android, I have at least 3,997 hardware choices.
Jacob Bodnar is the host and producer of the weekly social media and technology podcast Status Update at http://www.redtie.tv/. He also hosts and produces a daily tech and social media new podcast titled Tech Daily. You can read and listen to all of his content at http://www.jacobbodnar.com/.
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